IvyArcIvyArc
5

Lady Roxby

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 80

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Fillies' Handicap · 6f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort since reappearance when finding only one too good at Kempton 10 days ago. Hasn't found stringing performances together easy of late but she should be competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 83 par20/082OR 833 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 6f3y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 82 par2 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 82 par25/092OR 824 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 83 · 6f GF 138 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 83 par1/053OR 831 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 6f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 par12/062OR 824 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 80 · 5f GF 138 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 79 par5/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kempton42nd3rd−1
2026-07-24Ascot49th10th−1
2026-06-12York27th6th+1
2026-05-22Haydock17th4th+2
2026-05-01Newmarket37th7th0
2026-04-06Kempton43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/086/0412/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/202512th22/10%39%+0.39
16/09/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
25/09/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
06/04/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
01/05/20267th10/382%40%-0.42
22/05/20267th33/10%57%+0.57
12/06/20267th4/179%45%-0.33
24/07/20269th10/382%0%-0.82
05/09/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29