7
Space Bear
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 81
Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Fillies' Handicap · 6f 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |