5
Creative Queen
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 73
Yarmouth · Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Handicap · 5f 42y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 55% | -0.34 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |