1
Diomed Duke
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 80
Yarmouth · Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Handicap · 5f 42y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |