6
Fiorella Princess
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 70
Yarmouth · Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Handicap · 5f 42y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 01/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |