3
Elusive Path
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 7f 205y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -31.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |