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13:55 · Sligo

Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase

2m 1f 153yGoing TBC4YO plusTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
6/4
Hello Neighbour silks

Patrick Sheanon

Hello Neighbour

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Harzand - Je T'adore (Montjeu)

Keith Donoghue60%3/9G P Cromwell60%
357031
6.0Going 8.0
Hood

Smart hurdler who posted a career best when winning listed handicap at Punchestown in May by neck from Kopeck De Mee. The pick on hurdles form and a half-brother to 6-time winning chaser A Wave Of The Sea. One to consider despite yard going through a quiet spell over jumps.

Class Advantage

1/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par1/0729/12 · C0 · finish vs mark below29/12 · mark par1/02 · C1 · finish vs mark below1/02 · mark par13/03 · C1 · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par4/04 · C1 · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par2/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/05projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 153y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 10 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 10%1/07Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%1/02Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 59%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%4/04Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%2/05
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.4%Ahead 4/4
1
2
5/2
Bowensonfire silks

KTDA Racing

Bowensonfire

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Gemix - Amulet (Lauro)

Jack Kennedy60%3/12G Elliott
107423
5.0Going 10.0
Hood

Not necessarily bred to be a chaser but made a sound start over the larger obstacles when second at Galway in July. Effort when third of 5 in beginners chase at Killarney (17f, good) next time suggests valuable handicaps are the ultimate aim, but obvious claims if bouncing back here.

Class Advantage

1/02 · C1 · finish vs mark above1/02 · mark par1/0213/03 · C1 · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par6/04 · C0 · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par2/07 · C1 · finish vs mark below2/07 · mark par28/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 153y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%1/02Pos 13 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 13 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%6/04Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 89%28/07Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 50%22/08
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.1%Ahead 2/4
3
3
9/4
Putapoundinthejar silks

Ray Grehan

Putapoundinthejar

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Walk In The Park - Blue Eyed Lucy (Strategic Prince)

Daniel King2/4A J Martin
053112
8.0

Useful hurdler who won a couple of big-field handicaps in July, including the Galway Hurdle, and made an encouraging start over fences when 7 lengths second of 5 to Daddy Long Legs in maiden at Killarney on chasing bow (Bowensonfire third). Open to improvement.

Class Advantage

28/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/04 · mark par28/0417/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par1/06 · C12 · finish vs mark below1/06 · mark par4/07 · C12 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par30/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par22/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 153y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 80%28/04Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 3 · SP 16/5 | Expected: 83%Pos 3 · SP 16/5 | Actual: 71%1/06Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%30/07Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 75%22/08
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.2%Ahead 2/4
5
5
8/1
Mode Avion silks

Gigginstown House Stud

Mode Avion

4yo Gelding · 11-2

Taj Mahal - Galatica De Thaix (Rail Link)

Danny Gilligan60%0/2G Elliott60%
312606
3.0
Tongue strap

Stepped up from previous hurdling starts when making a winning handicap debut at Fairyhouse in February and backed that up at Limerick the following month. Has largely struggled since, though, and needs to improve for the switch to chasing to play a significant role.

Class Advantage

29/01 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a29/0121/02 · C12 · finish vs mark above21/02 · mark par12/03 · C13 · finish vs mark below12/03 · mark par4/04 · C1 · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par28/04 · C1 · finish vs mark below28/04 · mark par7/08 · C13 · finish vs mark below7/08 · mark par7/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 153y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 82%29/01Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%12/03Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 45%28/04Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%7/08
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.3%Ahead 2/4
4
4
66/1
Western Doyen silks

Mrs Bernadette O'Brien

Western Doyen

13yo Gelding · 11-12

Doyen - Nursling (Kahyasi)

Aidan Kelly60%V T O'Brien
7462P0
4.0

Veteran maiden hurdler who has clearly had issues and showed nothing on return from a 21-month absence in August. Makes chasing debut.

Class Advantage

26/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par26/0510/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par21/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/07 · mark par8/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par10/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below10/08 · mark par10/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 1f 153y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%26/05Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 54%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 82%21/07Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 93%20/08Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 21%10/08
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.4%Ahead 4/4