IvyArcIvyArc
9

Fay Og

3yo Gelding · 8-13

Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 7f 205y

#9

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Down the field in a trio of maidens on the level for Miss Natalia Lupini and again offered little sent hurdling after 3 months off at Down Royal last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 13.2 /10 (raw 12.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 7f180y Hvy 13130/03C8C8 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f40y Goo 13425/04C8C8 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f94y Goo 12518/05C8C0 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m1f87y Goo 15228/08C?projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down Royal?7th7th0
2026-05-18Roscommon?8th9th−1
2026-04-25Navan?18th20th−2
2026-03-30Navan?15th17th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0325/0418/0528/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +9.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/202615th125/10%0%0.00
25/04/202618th250/10%0%0.00
18/05/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
28/08/20267th100/10%25%+0.25