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5

Nautic Star

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 73

Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 7f 205y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent filly who has made the frame all 6 starts this year, most recently when fourth of 17 in maiden at Fairyhouse (7f, good) 9 days ago. Should be thereabouts again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f Gd 1239/08C?C8 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sft 128C8 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f Std 12926/05C8BHA75 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 75 · 1m Gd 127 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 129 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 75 par18/07C8OR 75C8 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 75 · 1m Goo 129 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 73 · 1m30y Gd 129 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 73 par5/09C8OR 73C8 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 129 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 73 par21/09C8OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Fairyhouse?4th6th−2
2026-09-05Navan?3rd5th−2
2026-08-03Naas?2nd4th−2
2026-07-18Curragh?3rd5th−2
2026-06-26CurraghBHA753rd4th−1
2026-05-26Dundalk?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0826/065/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20255th14/126%56%+0.29
10/09/20254th2/189%63%-0.27
26/05/20262nd11/486%90%+0.04
26/06/20263rd9/153%89%+0.37
18/07/20263rd2/189%80%-0.09
03/08/20262nd2/189%94%+0.04
05/09/20263rd7/282%88%+0.07
21/09/20264th11/486%81%-0.04