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Senna's Girl

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 70

Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 7f 205y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who is anything but an easy ride. One of her better efforts when beaten a length in Gowran handicap in June but below form after 3 months off back in maiden company at Punchestown (9f, good) recently. Cheekpieces reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Fairyhouse 09/07/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 72 · 7f Gd 134 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 72 par9/0772OR 72BHA68 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 26 · OR 68 · 7f Yie 136 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 68 parBHA68 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 7f Hvy 123 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 68 par2/1168OR 68BHA79 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR 79 · 1m Hvy 119 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 78 · 7f Yie 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 78 par15/04C5OR 78C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 77 · 1m50y Yie 130 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 77 parBHA76 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 76 · 1m Gd 123 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 76 par17/0576OR 76BHA73 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 73 · 1m1f100y Yie 143 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 71 · 1m1f30y Goo 135 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 71 par15/09C8OR 71projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Punchestown?7th9th−2
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA735th6th−1
2026-05-17NaasBHA7613th14th−1
2026-04-25Limerick?3rd5th−2
2026-04-15Leopardstown?4th2nd+2
2026-03-15CurraghBHA7921th23th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0715/0317/0515/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/202515th6/168%7%-0.62
16/10/202511th20/10%60%+0.60
02/11/20252nd14/126%80%+0.54
15/03/202621st50/10%17%+0.17
15/04/20264th40/10%80%+0.80
25/04/20263rd5/174%86%+0.12
17/05/202613th14/126%0%-0.26
12/06/20265th28/10%71%+0.71
15/09/20267th11/142%54%+0.12