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10

Aurora Nova

7yo Mare · 8-4 · OR 51

Bellewstown · Gannon City Recovery & Recycling Handicap · 0m 5f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA71 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 71 · 5f Yie 141 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 71 par16/1071OR 71BHA69 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 69 · 6f Sft 121 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 69 parBHA68 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 5f3y Sft 128 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 68 par11/0468OR 68BHA66 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 66 · 6f60y Goo 126 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 66 parBHA66 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f180y Goo 127 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 66 par7/0666OR 66BHA64 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 64 · 5f180y Goo 134 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 62 · 6f GF 122 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 62 par9/0862OR 62BHA60 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 142 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 60 parC8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 6f Std 143 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 54 par10/09C8OR 54projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Laytown?8th8th0
2026-08-23NaasBHA6010th10th0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA6214th14th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA6413th13th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA669th9th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA665th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1031/059/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20259th18/15%47%+0.41
03/04/202612th33/10%27%+0.27
11/04/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
31/05/20265th14/126%67%+0.40
07/06/20269th12/137%0%-0.37
11/07/202613th20/10%14%+0.14
09/08/202614th33/10%0%0.00
23/08/202610th16/116%50%+0.34
10/09/20268th16/116%22%+0.06