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4

Nouvel Espoir

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Bellewstown · Gannon City Recovery & Recycling Handicap · 0m 5f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Yie 121 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 par16/0566OR 66BHA64 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f180y Goo 125 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 par14/0663OR 63BHA61 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Sft 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA67 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 par4/0767OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 67 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 67 par9/0867OR 67BHA64 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 parBHA66 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 66 par21/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA662nd2nd0
2026-09-09CorkBHA642nd2nd0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA673rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA674th4th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA674th4th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA611st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0519/069/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
07/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
18/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
09/08/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
09/09/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
21/09/20262nd6/168%94%+0.25