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Arch Enemy

7yo Mare · 10-4 · OR 74

Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who proved at least as good as ever in coming out on top in 10-runner handicap (9/1) at Ayr (13f, soft) 12 days ago, suited by emphasis on stamina. Up 5 lb and respected as a last-time-out winner.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA104 @ Navan 17/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 104 · 2m4f50y Sft 159 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 104 par17/11104OR 104BHA62 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 26 · OR 62 · 1m Hvy 132 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m4f Sft 122 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 62 par28/0362OR 62BHA59 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 59 · 1m2f40y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 59 · 1m3f103y Gd 148 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 59 par15/0759OR 59BHA70 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 70 · 1m4f Yie 140 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 70 parBHA70 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 70 · 1m3f180y Yie 130 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 par1/0870OR 70BHA70 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 70 · 1m4f Yie 140 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 1m5f26y Sft 141 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 69 par18/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr51st1st0
2026-08-30CorkBHA704th4th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA705th5th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA7012th12th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA591st1st0
2026-07-11NavanBHA591st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1111/071/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/11/20259th80/10%33%+0.33
15/03/20266th40/10%80%+0.80
28/03/20266th8/158%62%+0.04
11/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
15/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
30/07/202612th8/158%31%-0.27
01/08/20265th12/137%73%+0.36
30/08/20264th11/142%82%+0.40
18/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47