3
Justenzia
4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 71
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Curragh | BHA71 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA68 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA70 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA72 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA75 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 01/06/2026 | 15th | 6/1 | 68% | 7% | -0.62 |
| 11/06/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 30/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 94% | +0.36 |
| 27/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 94% | +0.15 |