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12

Metamorpheus

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 54

Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful at Sligo in May and good runner-up efforts over hurdles in early August. Found run of good form coming to a halt at Listowel last week but dangerous to discount back on the level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA102 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m35y Sft 164 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 102 par12/01102OR 102BHA99 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Yie 155 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 99 parBHA51 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 51 · 1m2f158y Sft 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 51 par3/0551OR 51BHA100 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 100 · 1m7f153y Goo 156 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 parBHA103 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 103 · 2m1f165y Gd 143 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 103 par14/06103OR 103BHA55 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m4f65y Gd 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 55 parBHA103 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 103 · 2m175y Goo 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 103 par1/08103OR 103BHA103 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 2m1f Goo 153 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 103 parBHA108 @ Listowel 24/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 108 · 2m Goo 164 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 108 par24/09108OR 108projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24ListowelBHA1087th7th0
2026-08-03CorkBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA554th4th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA1034th4th0
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1002nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0115/051/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
29/03/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
03/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
11/07/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
01/08/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58
03/08/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
24/09/20267th9/276%50%-0.26