9
Spanish John
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA65 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA87 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA66 | 23th | 23th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA88 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | BHA86 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | BHA86 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 72% | +0.72 |
| 27/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 02/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |
| 01/01/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 52% | +0.10 |
| 24/05/2026 | 23rd | 100/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 46% | +0.04 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |