21
Acanto
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#17
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA53 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2465% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +16.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |