5
Celtic Druid
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA65 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | BHA65 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2470% of fieldRange 2-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 54% | -0.01 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 84% | +0.42 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |