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17

Charlie Brow'n

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58

Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y

#20

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#20

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Killarney 16/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 56 · 1m3f103y Sft 139 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 56 par16/0756OR 56BHA57 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m4f110y Yie 127 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 57 parC9 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m4f132y Goo 138 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 56 par9/10C9OR 56BHA54 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 23 · OR 54 · 1m6f Sft 136 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 54 · 1m3f180y Hvy 143 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 54 par27/1054OR 54C8 @ Thurles 05/02/2026 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR - · 2m34y Sft 166BHA60 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m5f56y Yie 142 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 60 par5/0860OR 60BHA60 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m6f80y Gd 130 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f194y Goo 141 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 59 par4/0959OR 59projClass-projected finish: 16th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA597th7th0
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA603rd3rd0
2026-08-05SligoBHA607th7th0
2026-02-05Thurles?16th16th0
2025-10-27GalwayBHA545th5th0
2025-10-22NavanBHA541st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0722/105/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish22nd of 249% of fieldRange 5-24 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 22nd of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20253rd33/10%85%+0.85
31/08/20255th7/163%69%+0.06
09/10/20255th4/179%50%-0.29
22/10/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
27/10/20255th7/282%76%-0.05
05/02/202616th125/10%6%+0.06
05/08/20267th11/142%54%+0.12
21/08/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
04/09/20267th11/271%45%-0.26