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Dancing Steve

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Curragh 23/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 72 · 1m4f Gd 135 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 72 par23/0872OR 72BHA69 @ Down Royal 05/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 69 · 1m2f145y Gd 139 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 69 parBHA68 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 68 par26/0968OR 68BHA66 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 66 · 1m2f194y Gd 136 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 66 parBHA65 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m4f Std 138 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 65 par12/0765OR 65BHA61 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m1f135y Goo 132 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA58 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 22 · OR 58 · 1m1f Goo 128 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 58 par6/0858OR 58BHA56 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 56 · 1m2f150y Std 142 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA56 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f194y Goo 138 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 56 par4/0956OR 56projClass-projected finish: 6th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA561st1st0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA563rd3rd0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA588th8th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA6110th10th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA6510th10th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA6613th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0824/066/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 24100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 24. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/202514th9/153%0%-0.53
05/09/202513th16/116%0%-0.16
26/09/202513th8/158%8%-0.50
24/06/202613th50/10%14%+0.14
12/07/202610th20/10%10%+0.10
20/07/202610th18/15%18%+0.13
06/08/20268th20/10%67%+0.67
15/08/20263rd10/382%85%+0.02
04/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45