6
Direct Approach
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#15
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA100 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2448% of fieldRange 1-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 26/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |