14
Duke Of Leggagh
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA67 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA72 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA75 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA77 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | BHA77 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2435% of fieldRange 19-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 24.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 59% | +0.32 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/08/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/09/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |