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16

Lily Parr

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 60

Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y

#22

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#22

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Fairyhouse 29/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m2f Yie 130 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 72 par29/0572OR 72BHA68 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m1f58y Goo 126 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 68 parBHA67 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m3f50y Sft 137 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 67 par6/1067OR 67C8 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 65 · 1m4f Hvy 129 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 65 parC8 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m4f Std 129 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 68 par19/11C8OR 68BHA67 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m4f17y Yie 127 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 66 · 1m4f Yie 136 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 66 par30/0766OR 66BHA65 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m4f48y Goo 135 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 65 parBHA62 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m1f30y Goo 123 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 62 par15/0962OR 62projClass-projected finish: 17th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA627th7th0
2026-08-18RoscommonBHA6510th10th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA666th6th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA6710th10th0
2025-11-19Dundalk?4th4th0
2025-11-02Curragh?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/052/1130/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 244% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 23rd of 24.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20259th28/10%33%+0.33
16/09/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
06/10/20255th5/174%33%-0.40
02/11/20254th16/116%86%+0.71
19/11/20254th10/382%67%-0.16
18/05/202610th22/10%10%+0.10
30/07/20266th50/10%69%+0.69
18/08/202610th15/261%40%-0.21
15/09/20267th18/15%54%+0.49