19
Miss Crinshawn
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 55
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#24
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#24
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | BHA57 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA60 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | BHA61 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA62 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | BHA58 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 240% of fieldRange 12-24 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 24th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 27/08/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 52% | -0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |