9
Miss Gitana
5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 64
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA65 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA66 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | BHA63 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | BHA62 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA94 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA63 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 2422% of fieldRange 1-24 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/06/2026 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 02/09/2026 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |