7
Northern Ruler
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.8 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA96 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA71 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2426% of fieldRange 9-23 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 24.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/09/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/10/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 27/10/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/02/2026 | 17th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 12th | 200/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 250/1 | 0% | 74% | +0.74 |
| 02/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |