18
Secret Rock
7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA105 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA105 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kilbeggan | BHA98 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Bellewstown | BHA58 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Down Royal | BHA58 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 2439% of fieldRange 2-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 24. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 44% | -0.50 |
| 29/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 16/07/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |