20
You Make Me Smile
8yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 55
Bellewstown · Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA98 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | BHA98 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA57 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA95 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA90 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA57 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 2443% of fieldRange 8-19 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |