3

Helen's Blaze

4yo Filly · 9-10

Bellewstown · SIS Maiden · 1m 4f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

125/1, always behind when twelfth of 14 in maiden at Punchestown (9f, good) on her belated debut 15 days ago. Significantly up in trip here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 12.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f30y Goo 13515/09C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Punchestown?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 10-15 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength8%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/202612th125/10%15%+0.15