1

Ebony King

5yo Gelding · 10-1

Bellewstown · SIS Maiden · 1m 4f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m Goo 1643/07C?C8 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR - · 2m175y Gd 1632/08C8C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m4f Std 13713/02C81 @ Fairyhouse 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 122 · 2m Yie 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 122 par5/041OR 122C0 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m6f44y Gd 13012/05C?C0 @ Listowel 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Goo 15425/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Listowel?1st1st0
2026-05-12Killarney?6th6th0
2026-04-05Fairyhouse12nd-6th+7
2026-02-13Dundalk?2nd2nd0
2025-08-22Kilbeggan?+1
2025-08-02Galway?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/072/0813/025/0412/0525/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2089% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
02/08/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
13/02/20262nd11/893%89%-0.04
05/04/20262nd28/10%83%+0.83
12/05/20266th10/382%0%-0.82
25/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29