Pierre Grosse
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 83
Bellewstown · SIS Maiden · 1m 4f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 2 | 8th | 1st | +6 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 3 | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA81 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |