20
Shambata
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 68
Bellewstown · SIS Maiden · 1m 4f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA69 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Naas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2063% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 12/06/2026 | 12th | 11/4 | 86% | 15% | -0.70 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 79% | +0.08 |