Shirzan

4yo Filly · 9-10

Bellewstown · SIS Maiden · 1m 4f 110y

Rank

Odds

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲1

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C9.0

Today:

Class gap: -1.0

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-20	Listowel	BHA107	2nd	5th	−3	4.8
2026-09-03	Kilbeggan	BHA107	6th	9th	−3	1.0
2026-08-15	Tramore	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-10	Cork	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-03-31	Limerick	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-03-03	Leopardstown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 1-20 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength54%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/12/2025	7th	80/1	0%	57%	+0.57
03/03/2026	3rd	40/1	0%	71%	+0.71
31/03/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
10/05/2026	6th	13/2	66%	29%	-0.37
15/08/2026	1st	20/1	0%	100%	+1.00
03/09/2026	6th	6/1	68%	67%	-0.02
20/09/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	94%	+0.18