14
In The Gloaming
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 63
Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 0m 7f 205y
#13
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA63 | 13th | 13th | +0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 18th | 19th | −0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA72 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 18th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 28/09/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |