10
Tyraxes
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 64
Bellewstown · Gilna's Of Laytown Optional Claiming Maiden · 0m 7f 205y
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 20/02/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |