IvyArcIvyArc
10

Distillate

6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 48

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 7f 205y

#15

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourteen runs since last win in 2025 and yet to give her running on turf this year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Std 138 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 56 par5/1156OR 56BHA55 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 7f Std 137 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 54 · 7f Std 136 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 54 par13/0254OR 54BHA58 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m Std 140 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 139 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 57 par20/0357OR 57BHA56 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 56 · 5f180y Hvy 138 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 56 parBHA53 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 53 · 1m20y Goo 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2/0953OR 53C8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 6f Std 143 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 49 parBHA49 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 49 · 7f15y Yie 132 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 49 par22/0949OR 49projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22ListowelBHA498th8th0
2026-09-10Laytown?3rd3rd0
2026-09-02NavanBHA5314th14th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA530
2026-03-30NavanBHA5614th14th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA5714th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/116/032/0922/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20254th12/137%77%+0.40
19/11/20259th11/271%38%-0.33
13/02/20262nd6/168%92%+0.23
06/03/20267th13/266%50%-0.16
20/03/202614th17/255%0%-0.55
30/03/202614th25/10%7%+0.07
02/09/202614th16/116%13%-0.02
10/09/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
22/09/20268th28/10%50%+0.50