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15

Manhattan Dandy

9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 40

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 7f 205y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran on a long losing run and shaped as if better for the run after 4 months off when fourth of 14 at Dundalk (1m) recently. Leap of faith required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA43 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m Std 125 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 43 par26/1143OR 43BHA42 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 42 · 7f Std 124 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 42 parBHA43 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 43 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 43 par28/0143OR 43BHA43 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 43 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 43 parBHA42 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 42 par6/0342OR 42BHA41 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 41 · 7f Std 123 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 41 parBHA40 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 40 · 7f Sft 122 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 40 par22/0440OR 40BHA40 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 7f111y Gd 123 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 40 par18/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 5th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DundalkBHA404th4th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA407th7th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA403rd3rd0
2026-03-27DundalkBHA418th8th0
2026-03-06DundalkBHA426th6th0
2026-02-13DundalkBHA434th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1113/0222/0418/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength98%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20259th25/10%38%+0.38
10/12/20252nd25/10%90%+0.90
28/01/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
13/02/20264th14/126%75%+0.49
06/03/20266th20/10%58%+0.58
27/03/20268th14/126%46%+0.20
22/04/20263rd10/382%85%+0.02
11/05/20267th10/147%54%+0.06
18/09/20264th66/10%77%+0.77