18
Navagio
7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 58
Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 7f 205y
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA61 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA68 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA72 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | BHA76 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 12th | 150/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 11/01/2026 | 18th | 150/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/02/2026 | 15th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 12/04/2026 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 24/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |