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3

Selective Power

7yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 57

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 7f 205y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped as if still in good heart after 12 weeks off when fourth at Gowran earlier in the month but not in the same form back there (1m, soft) 11 days ago. Bounce back required.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA70 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 70 · 1m Hvy 140 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 70 par21/1070OR 70BHA69 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 69 parBHA67 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 67 par17/1267OR 67BHA64 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m Std 122 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f205y Sft 134 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 64 par11/0464OR 64BHA62 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m50y Yie 132 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 62 parC9 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Yie 142 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 60 par12/06C9OR 60C9 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 60 · 1m Yie 142 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Gowran Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 58 · 1m Yie 140 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 58 par19/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Gowran ParkBHA585th5th0
2026-09-01Gowran Park?4th4th0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?4th4th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA629th9th0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA644th4th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA6411th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1020/0312/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20257th50/10%71%+0.71
12/11/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
17/12/202510th20/10%31%+0.31
20/03/202611th50/10%0%0.00
11/04/20264th18/15%77%+0.72
25/04/20269th11/271%43%-0.28
12/06/20264th22/10%77%+0.77
01/09/20264th5/174%80%+0.06
19/09/20265th7/163%73%+0.10