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16

Zephron

9yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 43

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 7f 205y

#16

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

9-y-o who has disappointed on 4 of his 5 starts so far this season and others arrive with much more pressing claims. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 72 · 7f Yie 126 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 72 par23/0772OR 72BHA67 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 67 · 7f Yie 137 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 23rd of 26 · OR 66 · 7f Yie 136 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 66 par16/1066OR 66BHA62 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 62 · 1m73y Sft 122 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 62 parBHA57 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 57 · 5f180y Hvy 139 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 57 par30/0357OR 57C9 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 56 · 7f180y Sft 138 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 54 par22/0454OR 54BHA50 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 50 · 7f Sft 132 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA47 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 47 · 1m20y Goo 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 47 par2/0947OR 47projClass-projected finish: 18th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA4713th13th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA5010th10th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA5411th11th0
2026-04-09Gowran Park?7th7th0
2026-03-30NavanBHA5715th15th0
2025-10-27GalwayBHA6216th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0727/1022/042/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/202511th40/10%0%0.00
22/09/202511th28/10%41%+0.41
16/10/202523rd25/10%12%+0.12
27/10/202516th40/10%0%0.00
30/03/202615th15/261%0%-0.61
09/04/20267th33/10%60%+0.60
22/04/202611th14/126%23%-0.03
19/06/202610th22/10%10%+0.10
02/09/202613th33/10%20%+0.20