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4

Launch Time

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 57

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 0m 7f 205y

#1

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA51 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m Std 132 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 51 par12/1251OR 51BHA49 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 49 parBHA56 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 56 par24/0456OR 56BHA55 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 55 · 1m1f Sft 137 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m160y Goo 136 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 54 par1/0754OR 54BHA53 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 53 · 7f42y Goo 136 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 53 parBHA57 @ Cork 14/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 57 · 1m Goo 140 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 57 par14/0857OR 57BHA57 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 57 · 7f195y Goo 140 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 57 parBHA57 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 57 · 6f Std 151 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 57 par10/0957OR 57projClass-projected finish: 7th of 32
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA576th6th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA572nd2nd0
2026-08-14CorkBHA577th7th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA531st1st0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA543rd3rd0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA559th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1211/0614/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3297% of fieldRange 4-22 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 32. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/12/20258th15/261%46%-0.14
12/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
24/04/20264th11/486%82%-0.03
11/06/20269th13/266%50%-0.16
01/07/20263rd10/382%82%-0.01
06/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
14/08/20267th4/179%63%-0.16
25/08/20262nd2/189%93%+0.03
10/09/20266th11/486%38%-0.48