5
Selective Power
7yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 57
Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) · 0m 7f 205y
#11
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Gowran Park | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA62 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bellewstown | BHA64 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 3268% of fieldRange 2-30 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 32. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 17/12/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |