15
Friendly Invoice
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 62
Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 7f 205y
#12
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | BHA70 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Dundalk | BHA65 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Dundalk | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/09/2025 | 14th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |