5
Red Hugh O'Donnell
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 66
Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 7f 205y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA68 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA73 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA74 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | BHA74 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA68 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA68 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 25/04/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |