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11

The Bear Trap

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 61

Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 7f 205y

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally off the mark at Dundalk (7f) in December 2024 for John Geoghegan. Off 17 months, not disgraced for new yard with fourth of 14 to Mickey The Steel in handicap back at Dundalk (7f) 12 days ago. Can build on it now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA75 @ Curragh 05/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 75 · 6f63y Goo 140 · below its mark05/06/2024 · OR 75 par5/0675OR 75BHA72 @ Fairyhouse 23/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 72 · 7f Gd 141 · below its mark23/09/2024 · OR 72 parBHA71 @ Curragh 05/10/2024 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 137 · below its mark05/10/2024 · OR 71 par5/1071OR 71BHA71 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 130 · below its mark22/10/2024 · OR 71 parBHA69 @ Dundalk 13/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 69 · 7f Std 140 · below its mark13/11/2024 · OR 69 par13/1169OR 69C8 @ Dundalk 13/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 67 · 7f Std 134 · beat its mark13/12/2024 · OR 67 parC5 @ Leopardstown 09/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 73 · 7f14y Gd 134 · beat its mark09/04/2025 · OR 73 par9/04C5OR 73BHA73 @ Curragh 05/05/2025 · Pos 16th of 25 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 143 · below its mark05/05/2025 · OR 73 parBHA61 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 61 par18/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DundalkBHA614th4th0
2025-05-05CurraghBHA7316th16th0
2025-04-09Leopardstown?5th5th0
2024-12-13Dundalk?1st1st0
2024-11-13DundalkBHA697th7th0
2024-10-22CurraghBHA7111th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0622/109/0418/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20248th10/382%42%-0.41
23/09/20245th12/137%60%+0.23
05/10/202410th14/126%44%+0.17
22/10/202411th12/137%29%-0.08
13/11/20247th8/158%54%-0.04
13/12/20241st7/163%100%+0.37
09/04/20255th10/147%67%+0.19
05/05/202516th16/116%38%+0.22
18/09/20264th8/158%77%+0.19