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4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 61

Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 7f 205y

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a breakthrough success in first-time cheekpieces over C&D in August. Good fourth of 18 at Cork next time and not seen to best effect when tenth of 15 in handicap at Listowel (1m, good to soft) 9 days ago. Considered in a first-time tongue tie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 1296/06C8BHA62 @ Fairyhouse 22/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 62 · 7f Yie 129 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 62 parBHA63 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 63 par10/1063OR 63BHA63 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 63 parBHA62 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 62 par12/1162OR 62BHA59 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 59 · 5f180y Yie 142 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA56 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 139 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 par25/0856OR 56BHA61 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Listowel 21/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m Yie 131 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 61 par21/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 8th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21ListowelBHA6110th10th0
2026-09-09CorkBHA614th4th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA561st1st0
2026-05-16NavanBHA598th8th0
2025-11-12DundalkBHA6213th13th0
2025-10-24DundalkBHA635th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0624/1025/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength7%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20254th50/10%80%+0.80
22/09/20254th5/174%82%+0.09
10/10/20255th4/179%69%-0.10
24/10/20255th9/153%69%+0.17
12/11/202513th10/147%8%-0.40
16/05/20268th8/158%56%-0.02
25/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
09/09/20264th10/147%82%+0.35
21/09/202610th6/168%36%-0.33