18
Fortuity
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 62
Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 0m 7f 205y
#6
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA62 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA67 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | BHA67 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fairyhouse | BHA63 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA63 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2155% of fieldRange 5-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 21. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 28/09/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |