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16

Givehertilxmas

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 60

Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 0m 7f 205y

#10

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Gowran Park 15/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 62 · 7f Sft 132 · below its mark15/06/2025 · OR 62 par15/0662OR 62BHA57 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 57 · 7f195y Sft 139 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 57 parBHA61 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 61 · 7f Hvy 131 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 61 par20/1061OR 61BHA60 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 59 par17/1259OR 59BHA55 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 55 parBHA57 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 57 · 7f94y Goo 139 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 57 par30/0657OR 57BHA60 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 60 · 7f94y Yie 142 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA61 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 61 par21/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 20
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA615th5th0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA602nd2nd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA573rd3rd0
2026-01-13DundalkBHA5511th11th0
2025-12-17DundalkBHA596th6th0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA6010th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/065/1230/0621/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 2170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20259th33/10%20%+0.20
02/10/20252nd5/174%89%+0.15
20/10/20256th9/276%67%-0.10
05/12/202510th12/137%31%-0.06
17/12/20256th14/126%62%+0.35
13/01/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
30/06/20263rd11/142%86%+0.44
31/08/20262nd15/890%92%+0.02
21/09/20265th7/163%76%+0.13