13
The Bear Trap
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Bellewstown · Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Handicap · 0m 7f 205y
#13
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA61 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | BHA73 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-12-13 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-10-22 | Curragh | BHA71 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2150% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2024 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.41 |
| 23/09/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/10/2024 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2024 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 13/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 05/05/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |