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3

Star Allure

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 37

Bellewstown · Johnny Sullivan Memorial Maiden · 5f 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Yet to fire this season, coming in a never-dangerous fifth of 9 in 6f handicap at Laytown 20 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength97%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 34 · 5f3y Sft 129 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 34 par1/10C8OR 34C8 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 129 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 58 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 54 par28/1154OR 54C8 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 50 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 50 parBHA52 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 6f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 52 par13/0152OR 52C8 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 50 parBHA50 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 50 · 6f61y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 50 par3/0550OR 50BHA45 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 45 parBHA40 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 40 · 6f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 40 par10/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA405th0th+4
2026-08-03NaasBHA4510th6th+4
2026-05-03SligoBHA5010th6th+3
2026-02-27Dundalk?8th7th+1
2026-01-13DundalkBHA5211th8th+3
2025-12-10Dundalk?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1010/123/0510/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20253rd40/10%67%+0.67
22/10/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
28/11/20257th80/10%25%+0.25
10/12/20253rd66/10%71%+0.71
13/01/202611th40/10%23%+0.23
27/02/20268th200/10%0%0.00
03/05/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
03/08/202610th66/10%36%+0.36
10/09/20265th40/10%50%+0.50